3 Ideas in 2 Minutes on Detecting Deception
Disbelieving the Truth, Deception Detection & Deception Dilemma
I. Disbelieving the Truth
Disbelieving the Truth is a lie detection error that happens when we mistake a person’s behaviour for a sign of deceit. An alleged robber might be nervous when talking about his whereabouts during the night in question. Not because he’s lying. But because he’s generally nervous when talking to people or afraid of being wrongfully imprisoned.
Here’s how this phenomenon can be exploited, according to psychologist Paul Elkman:
A clue to deceit may be set out deliberately by a con man to exploit his victim’s mistaken belief that he has caught the con man lying. Poker players reportedly use this trick, establishing what in poker lingo is called a “false tell.” For example, a player might for many hours deliberately cough when bluffing. The opponent, hopefully astute enough, soon recognizes this pattern of coughing and bluffing. In a crucial hand of the game when the stakes are raised, the deceiver coughs again, but this time he is not bluffing and so wins a wallet-breaking pot from his confused opponent.
II. Deception Detection
Intelligence analysts have a vital interest in detecting deceptions on a larger scale. Deception Detection is a structured analytic technique designed to help them vet their sources. Four acronyms guide them through the method:
Motive, Opportunity & Means (MOM) of the potential deceiver.
Past Opposition Practices (POP), that is the track record of our counterparts.
Manipulability of Sources (MOSES) when it comes to their vulnerability and people’s access to them.
Evaluation of Evidence (EVE), for example in terms of its credibility.
If you want to learn more, I’ve written about this technique in Deception Detection: How to Anticipate Deceit.
III. Deception Dilemma
The mere possibility of deception can be quite paranoia-inducing. Former intelligence analyst Richards J. Heuer gets to the heart of this Deception Dilemma:
If deception is done well, the analyst should not expect to see any evidence of it. If, on the other hand, it is expected, the analyst will find evidence of deception even when it is not there.
—Richards J. Heuer
🐘
Have a great week,
Chris
themindcollection.com
P.S.: Check out my latest essay on Cobra Effects: Why the Road to Hell Is Paved With Bad Incentives