3 Ideas in 2 Minutes on the Power of Numbers
Law of Truly Large Numbers, Seinfeld's Secret Technique & the Law of Odd Numbers
I. Law of Truly Large Numbers
The Law of Truly Large Numbers is a statistical adage about probabilities. Large numbers can be deceiving. Meaning, we can observe pretty much any pattern as long as the underlying dataset is large enough.
Let’s say you’re playing the lottery. If you play often enough you’ll win something once or twice eventually. (Ha! A pattern emerges. My system works.) Unfortunately, the win can distort the reality of gambling. You’re probably going to remember that one win more than all the losses.
II. Seinfeld's Secret Technique
Jerry Seinfeld, the star of the ill-fated sitcom Jerry, is known for his absurd misanthropic humour. So it’s no surprise he’s developed a unique strategy for surviving small talk with “regular people”. In an episode of his show Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee, he shared this conversation hack:
Ask them questions to which the answer is a number. […] There's always an answer. This is Seinfeld's secret technique for talking to regular people. “How long have you lived here? What time do you start work? When did you do that?”
Source: Business Insider
The advantages were twofold: On the one hand, people could answer such questions easily. On the other hand, they didn't have to reveal too much about themselves to a stranger.
III. Law of Odd Numbers
Numbers are a crucial part of bargaining. But did you know they’re not all created equal when you want to get the best deal in a negotiation? Chris Voss, former FBI hostage negotiator, explains what I’d like to call the Law of Odd Numbers:
Every number has a psychological significance that goes beyond its value. […] In terms of negotiation, some numbers appear more immovable than others.
The biggest thing to remember is that numbers that end in 0 inevitably feel like temporary placeholders, guesstimates that you can easily be negotiated off of. But anything you throw out that sounds less rounded — say, $37,263 — feels like a figure that you came to as a result of thoughtful calculation. Such numbers feel serious and permanent to your counterpart, so use them to fortify your offers.
—Chris Voss, Never Split the Difference
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Have a great week,
Chris
themindcollection.com
P.S.: My latest article is about underrated quotes on life and leadership from retired US Navy SEAL and notorious early bird Jocko Willink.