3 Ideas in 2 Minutes on Thinking Like The Enemy
Red Team Analysis, Mirror-Image Problem & Thinking Thief
I. Red Team Analysis
Red Team Analysis is an analytical technique designed to reproduce the thoughts and actions of a counterpart. It’s often used in intelligence analysis circles to anticipate the moves of an adversary such as a foreign power. The bare-bones approach is to:
Put a team of knowledgeable analysts in the shoes of the adversary. Then present them with prompts to which they have to react as the adversary would.
Instruct the team to develop a set of questions from the counterpart’s point of view, such as: How would I react? What would be my concerns? Who would I trust with the information?
Draft policy papers from the perspective of the adversary. These can include analysis and recommendations on strategic decisions.
Red Team Analysis is akin to an elaborate role-play. Participants should be intimately familiar with the target’s culture and way of thinking. But as with all predictions, the method is far from being infallible.
Source: Tradecraft Primer
II. Mirror-Image Problem
Walking the proverbial mile in someone else’s shoes is not as easy as it sounds. One of the problems you could encounter is the Mirror-Image Problem. It arises when you project on your adversary the same “motives, values or understanding of an issue” that you hold yourself.
Because the question is not what you would do if you were you were pitted against yourself. The question is what you would do if you were literally your enemy. With all their unique values, beliefs and life experiences.
III. Thinking Thief
Thinking like your opponent can give you a fresh new perspective. Consider this anecdote featuring crime researcher Paul Ekblom who interviewed pickpockets for his research:
Pickpockets on the Underground told Paul Ekblom that they would stand near signs warning passengers that pickpockets were operating. The signs caused passengers to reassuringly pat whichever pockets contained their wallets. This considerably simplified the task for pickpockets.
If you’re interested in the topic, my latest long-form essay on Red Team Analysis: How to Think Like Your Opponent strings all three ideas together. 🐘
Have a great week,
Chris
themindcollection.com